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With a new year comes a new raft of watch releases, and we’re gazing into our crystal ball to get a glimpse of what this year could look like.

Ok, so we don’t have a crystal ball to look into, unfortunately. I wish we did so I could win Powerball this week and then go on a watch-buying spree, but alas, this isn’t the case. One can dream! But, what we do have is the past to look back on, what the industry data is telling us and also how we are seeing the trends shaping up based on the feedback we get from brands, the chatter amongst the watch forums as well as the collector community. This and taking into account the macroeconomic trends that always influence the watch and any luxury industry always gives us some clues.

This week, we have already looked at what 2025 holds in terms of fairs and brand anniversaries, and it will be a BIG year. If you’ve not read our article on the major events for 2025 or our article looking at the brand anniversaries, here is a quick recap:

Watch Fairs

• LVMH Watch Week – This was meant to kick off this week in Los Angeles, but unfortunately due to the devastating wildfires in the Palisades, the physical event has been cancelled for 2025. We will however see local activations happen in countries and most probably keynotes and presentations online. Either way, there are a whole host of pieces being released from TAG Heuer, Hublot, Zenith, & Bvlgari.
• Watches & Wonders – The main watch trade show for the year in Geneva is happening again this year from April 1 to 7, and this year will be bigger than 2024 thanks to an addition of 5 new brands and from all reports, even more press, industry reps and public on the last few days. We’ve been on the ground covering it the past few years, and this year we’ll be back amongst it all showcasing the best the industry has over the week in Geneva.
• Geneva Watch Days – This fair is getting bigger each year, and rightfully so as it’s less about trade, and more for watch lovers, not to mention its large focus on the independent watch scene vs the large brand conglomerates. Last year was a fun event and we saw some magnificent pieces from brands such as De Bethune, MB&F, Speake Marin and Arnold & Son to name a few, with loads of collectors and press coming into Geneva for the 4 days. This year, there are more brands exhibiting, and we imagine more people making their way to see some of the best independents around, including us.
• Dubai Watch Week – Dubai Watch Week has been going since 2015 and was primarily set up for the UAE by Siddiqi & Sons, one of the region’s largest jewellers. Due to it only being every 2 years from 2017, 2025 marks the 7th edition of Dubai Watch Week and with 23,000 visitors and 60 brands exhibiting in 2023, it is one fair that is picking up momentum, and fast! Chamath was there in 2023 to see what the excitement was about and saw some remarkable pieces, like the MB&F HM11 Architect which was launched at the fair. This year, we hope to be back in November, and fingers crossed it doesn’t flood again!
• Local Fairs – Of course here in Australia we have a string of local fairs and events with LVMH Watch Week activations in Sydney this week, we’re sure to see another edition of Watch Fest later in the year plus another edition of Between The Lugs and AFR Watch Week. We also should see the Sydney International Watch Fair back again, which we covered in 2023 with some of the best independents from Switzerland showcasing their pieces in what could be described as a mini Geneva Watch Days.

Anniversaries, So Many Anniversaries!

This year is the year of anniversaries and birthdays in the watch world. A load of brands and watches all have milestones, some more significant than others, and we have already seen the first release in the Vacheron Constantin Historiques 222 Steel being released as part of the Maison’s 270th Birthday. But here’s a quick list:

• Audemars Piguet’s 150th Anniversary – Watch out for some special pieces coming out, especially since the steel and gold 15407 Skeletons have now been discontinued.
• A. Lange & Söhne’s 180th Anniversary – Even though the modern brand turns 31 this year, the brand was founded back in 1845 by Ferdinand Adolph Lange, but stopped thanks to the nationalisation of Germany after WWII and revived by his great-grandson. If the 25th Anniversary of the Datograph and the 30th Anniversary of the Lange 1 is anything to go, we’re in for a treat!
• Blancpain’s 290th Anniversary – The oldest watch brand in the world is edging towards 300, and with some iconic pieces, like the Fifty Fathoms or the Villaret, we’re sure to see some heavy hitters from the brand this year.
• Breguet’s 250th Anniversary – With a history that dates back to the 1700s and one of the most famous names in the watch world, Abraham-Louis Breguet, we’re expecting to see some beautiful and complicated pieces from the brand that calls the Vallée de Joux home.
• Girard-Perregaux Laureato’s 50th Anniversary – While not as popular as other integrated sports watches, the GP Laureato still stands on its own. With a range of metals, colours, and materials already in production, we may see some higher-end Laureatos make an appearance for their 50th.
• Grand Seiko’s 65th Anniversary – It’s not the oldest brand around, but the luxury arm of Seiko is sure to turn out some beautifully crafted pieces, like the Kodo we saw last year, and as always, those beautiful dials inspired by the natural Japanese landscape.
• Hublot’s 20th Anniversary of the Big Bang – Hublot does limited editions very well, and they seem to strike a chord with collectors, so we expect to see some new limited edition models this year in the Big Bang range. Time will tell if the Unico movement makes its way into the standard Big Bang, or if they’ll reserve this purely for the Unico flyback models.

• MB&F’s 20th Anniversary – What started as a dream for Max Büsser turned into a reality and is now one of the most sought-after independent brands today at just 20 years young. They’ve already kicked their birthday off with the LM Sequential Flyback Longhorn and LM Perpetual Longhorn a few days ago, and we can’t wait to see what other crazy horological marvels come out from Max and team this year.
• Omega’s 30th Anniversary With James Bond – While it isn’t a brand anniversary so to speak, this year marks 30 years of Omega working with the James Bond franchise. Over the years we’ve seen some great limited edition James Bond Pieces come out, like the James Bond 60th Anniversary Seamaster in 2023. Daniel Craig keeps teasing us, so it may well be the full Bronze Gold we’ve seen on his wrist lately. It’s also the Planet Ocean’s 20th Anniversary and the 55th Anniversary of the Silver Snoopy Award, so we could easily see a new or refreshed PO line and I’d bet on the new 55th Anniversary Edition Snoopy Speedy.
• Panerai’s 165th Anniversary – It’s hard to believe that Panerai has only been in the commercial world for around 30 years, yet the brand Giovani Panerai started all those years ago has a deep history with military watches for the Italian Navy Seals, so our fingers are crossed for some great Luminor and Radiomir releases this year that track back to their roots.
• Rolex’s 120th Anniversary – The crown turns 120, and given that last year was a little lacklustre from Rolex, we expect to see some great watches being released at Watches & Wonders and again throughout the year. Could we potentially get a new model to mark the occasion, or more likely, some new variants of existing models? It is also the GMT’s 70th Birthday, so some are suggesting a new GMT “Coke” could be on the cards.

• TAG Heuer’s 165th Anniversary – TAG Heuer isn’t one to shy away from a brand or watch anniversary, and we’ve already seen some great new Carreras released for its 60th Anniversary in 2023. What will TAG Heuer bring out for their 165th? Time will tell.
• Vacheron Constantin’s 270th Anniversary – The longest continuing watch brand in the world turns 270, and we’ve kicked the year off with the launch of the Steel 222, which is a great start and we could see a few more Historiques come out this year or some heavy hitting Overseas or Patrimony’s maybe.
• Zenith’s 160th Anniversary – Zenith has a long and proud history, and the brand from Le Locle is sure to celebrate with some historical re-creations from their vast back catalogue and possibly some special pieces from their new models, like the Defy, Defy Skyline and Chronomaster Sport.

What Does All This Mean?

It’s a great question, and this takes me back to my opening paragraph and the non-existent crystal ball we wish we had. But, before I gaze into my non-existent crystal ball, we need to look at what is happening in the global economy: It seems that worldwide inflation is softening, which means that in countries like Australia, and we’ve already seen this in the US, interest rates should start to come down a little. The US has had a half-a per cent reprieve, or 50 basis points in the last year, but here in Australia we are yet to see this. If the banks and Reserve Bank are to be believed, then from next month we should start to see this, given our inflation in the latest figures released for November by the ABS was down to around 2.3%, less than half of what it was in September 2023.

However, the big elephant in the room for most luxury brands in China. When you look at the annual reports of the big three – LMVH, Richemont and Swatch, not to mention the overall figures for the luxury market, it seems that China was the contributing factor to the decline in overall sales and revenue, in some cases accounting for up to a 20% decline. This has a massive impact when you consider that China, Hong Kong and the wider Asian region make up around 30% of the business. So you can have a bumper year everywhere else in the world, but if China isn’t firing, then those gains are effectively wiped out. This is one of the reasons we saw a softer year last year, and why brands focused on the ultra-high end at Watches & Wonders 2024, as that market segment in most cases is relatively unaffected.

We are yet to see how 2025 will play out in this key region. Some experts predict a rebound in higher growth from previous years, however, many publications such as Goldman Sachs and the World Bank predict China will have GDP growth at a slower rate – somewhere in the 3%-4% range due to the ongoing property crisis, U.S. tariffs and other monetary issues. While this doesn’t sound bad, (growth is growth right?) it means that people’s overall spending won’t be as free as in previous years gone by, and given China’s growing middle class has been a major factor influencing the luxury sector’s growth, less spending equals less revenue, equalling less profit. This is one reason the luxury goods sector is now shifting the focus to the U.S., such as LVMH planning on LVMH Watch Week in L.A. until the fires over the last few weeks.

If, and that is IF all this plays out, then hopefully the softer market we saw in 2024, will start to ease a little, and people who had been holding off will come back to play again. I have a feeling that brands have the same sentiment too, and as said, last year was about heavy hitters whereas this year looks to be more balanced.

Gazing Into The Crystal Ball

In a nutshell, easing global inflation, a more positive economic outlook + a massive year for a load of brands and models equals a great year for the watch industry. In turn, more options and more innovation (hopefully) for us watch lovers and collectors. So what would we love to see? What do we think we’ll see? Talking about this with the wider Watch Advice team, it seems we all have slightly different ideas, but, here’s the general consensus.

Steel Sports Will Have More Of A Focus

Rolex, it is said, often sets the tone for the market, so in 2024 when they released just one steel sports model, the GMT Master II GRNR, or the “Bruce Wayne” as it is affectionately called, with the rest of the line up all precious metal and gem set variants, we knew 2024 wasn’t about the average watch buyer. But this year should be different, with many brands potentially holding back models for a better economic climate, coupled with the slew of anniversaries, we should see more steel models at a more affordable price point being released. At least this is the hope!

Vintage Comebacks

Well, sort of. The vintage watch market has seen better days, but there is a sense that 2025 may be the start of a bit of a resurgence in the vintage market, especially with the more well-known and collectable brands like Rolex, Cartier and anything from the Holy Trinity. But, the whole vintage revival that is going on with brands now, delving back into their archives to see what inspiration they can draw, or even to the point of doing a vintage re-issue or recreation isn’t slowing down. We’ve just seen the Vacheron 222 in Steel come out, and this watch ticks this and the above box, but brands like Zenith, TAG Heuer, Cartier, and Omega to name a few also have large back catalogues to choose from and are already giving us a few hints at what’s to come if last year is any indication.

Unlimited Limited Editions

Yes, it sounds slightly like an oxymoron, but given this year there are so many anniversaries, we can expect to see many of these being limited editions of sorts. Some will be very limited in number, like A. Lange & Söhne due to their low standard production numbers and also price, but some may not be so limited with some brands using the birthday as the limited number, or as we’ve seen in some cases, the year that we’re celebrating the anniversary in, in this case, 2025 pieces.

Innovation Is Key

Really, in the last year or so there hasn’t been a major swell of innovation in the industry. We’ve seen pockets of it with selected brands and models, like the IWC Portugieser Eternal Calendar last year which ended up being one of the stars of Watches & Wonders. As a result of its innovation, the Eternal Calendar set a new world record for its moonphase accuracy and then proceeded to take out the Aiguille D’Or at the GPHG. Outside of this, there were not many other watches that immediately stood out for their innovativeness last year, but talking to some brands late last year and now in the new year, I get the sense that we’ll see some pieces with some real innovation this year.

Colour, Colour & More Colour

I don’t know about you, but I’m loving a bit of colour on watches currently, so much so that I’m always on the lookout for something that isn’t your standard black or white. Blues I can live with as there’s a lot of variation, but bring on the well-done colour watches, which I think we’ll see more of this year. Green has seen love over the past couple of years, who can forget the Vacheron Constantin Overseas Dualtime that was released in a beautiful green dial and rose gold combination last year, or the teal TAG Heuer Carrera Dato and accompanying Tourbillon! But, this year could see some more reds, purple has started to make headway and of course, a myriad of differing blue shades that are not your stock standard dark blue. Jay Chou and David Beckham are already teasing us with a new turquoise dial Tudor Black Bay Chronograph which has the internet talking, so time will tell!

More Complications Please!

Time-only watches are great, but who doesn’t love a complication? It seems that many brands do, and this is great as it allows variation in model lines and helps to liven up things for us watch lovers. Last year was the year of high complications. Practically all of Jaeger-LeCoultre’s new models released at Watches & Wonders were high complications – perpetual calendars, a range of new Duometre’s with the foudroyante, and my personal favourite, the Jaeger-Lecoultre Duometre Heliotourbillon Perpetual. Even TAG Heuer got in on the action with their Monaco Rattrapante. We would love to see this trend continue in 2025 and have more brands bring out just one or two higher complications to wow us this year. Along with watches we can afford that is!

So there you have a bit of insight into what we think will happen this year, and of course, these are just predictions, nothing in the watch world is ever certain until it’s happened. Let’s see how we go come Watches & Wonders in April, and how the year plays out. Saddle up!

If you think we’ve missed anything, or have some predictions of your own, then let us know in the comments below.